Are youth voters reliable? -15 days ’til election
Will polls showing a landslide lead for Obama among young voters hold up on Election Day?
Gallup (www.gallup.com) addresses the question by introducing a “traditional” and “expanded” set of daily polls. In the ”traditional” scenario, registered voters that historically have stayed home on Election Day, including many young voters, are minimized in the polls’ ”likely voter” model. In the “expanded” scenario, the model counts on these voters to show up in unprecedented numbers, likely tipping the scales to an Obama Moment (http://www.emergingagenda.com/emerging_agenda/the-ob.html).
On the left, we find no shortage of writers craving an avalanche of youth ballots. The Nation (http://www.thenation.com/doc/20081103/currier) points to voter registration statistics from Virginia where 42% of new voter registrants are under 25, as a potent sign of youth electoral influence. We also learn that though the US Census Bureau recorded a tepid 49% voter participation rate for young voters in 2004, 81% of all registered young voters made it to the polls.
Not surprisingly, both the Democratic and Republican parties have intensively targeted young voters for registration this year. Al Jazeera English (http://english.aljazeera.net/news/americas/2008/10/20081019191822535606.html) and The Guardian (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/uselectionroadtrip/2008/oct/20/us-elections-first-time-voter) have interviews with young voters in battleground states like Virginia that indicate heightened enthusiasm for Election 2008.
And recent electoral history may point to a global resurgence of youth vote prowess. Numerous analysts of Spanish politics for instance, credit young voters with sealing surprise Socialist Party victories in 2004 and 2008. In Spain as elsewhere, voters under 30 are more likely to respond to new technology like Facebook and text messaging that facilitates political organization.
Many of our participants in a recent Seesmic conversation on the youth vote felt that 2008 might be the electoral year of the young. What do you think? Let us know your thoughts (link to Submit page) at Dear American Voter.
